TruCast Forecast

TruCast is SMVue's forecast inside the comparison card on the Performance page. It gives managers a second read on the period by pricing the CRM Weighted Outlook's eligible pipeline with SMVue signals, so you can compare the auditable CRM baseline with what those signals support.

TruCast is a statistical forecast model. It is built from synced deal data, close dates, forecast categories, activity and risk signals, and your workspace's closed-deal history.

Where to Find It

Open Performance. The Forecast comparison card shows CRM Weighted Outlook and TruCast together, with Quota Attainment beside it.

CRM Weighted Outlook is closed-won revenue plus every non-omitted open deal due in the selected period, using the workspace's configured revenue value multiplied once by the deal's CRM probability or its stage probability. TruCast starts with that same eligible deal set. Depending on model readiness and the selected view, it prices those deals with deal-level close-confidence or learned category-recovery rates. An eligible learned full-team view can also include projected future creation and pull-ins.

What TruCast Measures

For the Performance card, TruCast starts with:

• Closed won - revenue already won in the selected period
• Eligible open deals - every non-omitted open deal with a close date in the selected period
• Commit, Best Case, and Other - categories that explain the CRM outlook's mix, not separate headline forecasts
• SMVue model pricing - either deal-level close-confidence or, when the learned model is eligible, historical recovery rates for each forecast category

SMVue translates provider-specific category names into those user-facing groups. For example, Salesforce values sent through its API as Forecast and BestCase are treated as Commit and Best Case, respectively. Unknown or blank categories are included under Other; only deals explicitly marked Omit are excluded. This interpretation does not rewrite the original synced CRM data.

The headline TruCast number is closed won plus model-priced eligible pipeline. The card identifies which method is active and explains its coverage. When an eligible learned view includes projected future creation or pull-ins, the card shows those terms separately.

How the Model Prices Deals

Each eligible open deal is evaluated on the same configured revenue-value basis used by CRM Weighted Outlook.

In close-confidence mode, TruCast multiplies that value by the deal's calibrated close-confidence. The signal set includes factors such as stale activity, missing next steps, pushed close dates, single-threading, buyer silence, and other deal-health patterns visible in synced CRM and activity data.

If some eligible deals have not been scored yet, close-confidence mode uses the average close-confidence from scored deals in that exact view and labels the coverage as partial. If none of the eligible deals has a score, SMVue withholds that version of TruCast instead of presenting an unscored total as a model forecast.

When the learned model is eligible, TruCast instead applies your workspace's realized recovery rate for each forecast category. A category without a fitted rate falls back visibly to the effective CRM deal or stage probability. On an eligible unfiltered, full-team monthly view, the model can also add separately disclosed projections for pipeline created during the remaining period and existing deals pulled into it. Filtered, longer-horizon, or incompatible revenue-basis views omit those workspace-level future-flow terms.

How to Read the Card

Use TruCast as a signal-discounted planning read, not as a guarantee.

• If TruCast is below CRM Weighted Outlook, SMVue's pricing and any included future-flow terms produce a more conservative finish than the CRM baseline.
• If TruCast is above CRM Weighted Outlook, SMVue's pricing and any included future-flow terms produce a more favorable finish than the CRM baseline.
• If the two outlooks are aligned, the SMVue model broadly agrees with the CRM probability-weighted baseline.
• If there are no eligible open deals in the period, CRM Weighted Outlook reduces to closed won. TruCast also reduces to closed won unless an eligible learned view includes future creation or pull-in terms.
• If a pipeline filter is active, quota comparisons pause because quota is team-level while the view is pipeline-scoped.
• If no quota is configured, TruCast can still show forecast dollars, but quota progress is unavailable until a quota exists.
• If the card reads "TruCast is unavailable", no forecast model is fitted for your workspace right now and the card deliberately shows no figure. Closed won still displays and is unaffected. This reflects the state of the forecasting model for your workspace, not anything about your pipeline — nothing on the card in that state should be read as a forecast, high or low. The card distinguishes two causes: a model fit that failed, and a workspace that has no fitted model (either awaiting its first one, or excluded from model training).

What to Do With It

Use TruCast in forecast reviews and pipeline coaching:

1. Compare TruCast against CRM Weighted Outlook.
2. Use Why different? to inspect the active pricing method, model coverage, and any included future-flow terms.
3. Open the deals behind the gap and review the risk signals.
4. Coach the rep on the specific fixable issues: next step, close date, stakeholder coverage, activity, or qualification.
5. Revisit the card as deal signals and CRM updates change through the period.

TruCast works best as a conversation starter. It helps you ask, "What would need to become true for this forecast to hold?"

Limits to Keep in Mind

TruCast depends on the quality and completeness of the synced deal data. Missing revenue values, close dates, activity history, or closed-deal history can limit how much signal the model has.

When no forecast model is fitted at all for your workspace, the card says so instead of showing a number — it will not display the pre-model composition as though it were a forecast, because a number missing the model's projection terms reads as a shortfall or a surplus that is not real.

Within a fitted model, one narrower fallback does apply: if a forecast category has too few comparable closed deals to support a rate of its own, that category is priced at your CRM's stage weighting instead. That is your CRM's own estimate for those deals, not a modeled discount.

Treat the number as a calibrated management read, not a board-grade revenue promise. It is strongest when the CRM is current and the team consistently marks forecast categories, close dates, and next steps.