TruCast Forecast
Compare your CRM forecast with a signal-calibrated statistical forecast.
TruCast is the risk-adjusted forecast card on the Performance page. It gives managers a second read on the period by repricing open forecasted deals with the deal-risk model's calibrated close-confidence, so you can compare what the CRM says to what the signals support.
TruCast is a statistical forecast model. It is built from deal data, risk signals, forecast categories, close dates, CRM forecast amounts, and your workspace's closed-deal history.
Where to Find It
Open Performance. TruCast appears beside the standard Forecast and Quota Attainment cards.
The standard Forecast card mirrors CRM forecast categories and stage weighting. TruCast uses the same in-period deal set, then applies the model's close-confidence to the open deals so riskier deals count for less.
What TruCast Measures
For the live Performance card, TruCast starts with:
- Closed won - revenue already won in the selected period
- Commit deals - open deals marked Commit with close dates in the selected period
- Best-case deals - open deals marked Best case with close dates in the selected period
- Close-confidence - the model's calibrated probability-style score for each open forecasted deal
The headline TruCast number is closed won plus the risk-adjusted Commit forecast. Best-case deals are shown as realistic upside in the card's closeable tile, not folded into the main headline in the standard mode.
How the Model Prices Deals
Each open Commit or Best-case deal is evaluated on the same CRM forecast-value basis used by the Forecast card. TruCast then multiplies that value by the deal's close-confidence.
Close-confidence is calibrated from deal-risk signals and closed-deal history. The signal set includes factors such as stale activity, missing next steps, pushed close dates, single-threading, buyer silence, and other deal-health patterns visible in synced CRM and activity data.
If a deal has not been scored yet, TruCast does not invent a penalty. It uses the average close-confidence from scored forecasted deals in the same calculation. If none of the forecasted deals have a score, the card leaves the forecast undiscounted rather than fabricating risk.
How to Read the Card
Use TruCast as a signal-discounted planning read, not as a guarantee.
- If TruCast is below the weighted Forecast card, the gap is the risk the signals see that the CRM categories do not.
- If TruCast and the Forecast card are aligned, the model broadly agrees with the rep-entered forecast categories.
- If there are no Commit deals in the period, TruCast covers closed won only and keeps Best-case deals in the upside tile.
- If a pipeline filter is active, quota comparisons pause because quota is team-level while the view is pipeline-scoped.
- If no quota is configured, TruCast can still show forecast dollars, but quota progress is unavailable until a quota exists.
What to Do With It
Use TruCast in forecast reviews and pipeline coaching:
- Compare TruCast against the weighted Forecast card.
- Look for the signal drag - the dollars that CRM categories count but TruCast discounts.
- Open the deals behind the gap and review the risk signals.
- Coach the rep on the specific fixable issues: next step, close date, stakeholder coverage, activity, or qualification.
- Revisit the card as deal signals and CRM updates change through the period.
TruCast works best as a conversation starter. It helps you ask, "What would need to become true for this forecast to hold?"
Limits to Keep in Mind
TruCast depends on the quality and completeness of the synced deal data. Missing forecast amounts, close dates, forecast categories, activity history, or closed-deal history can limit how much signal the model has.
Treat the number as a calibrated management read, not a board-grade revenue promise. It is strongest when the CRM is current and the team consistently marks forecast categories, close dates, and next steps.